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TRS POLL: Cox 40, Snyder 23, Youngkin 19

Depending on how the dominoes fall, Cox and Snyder are battling it out.

Shaun Kenney

May 4

Former House Speaker Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) holds a significant lead over his rivals heading into the Saturday, May 8th RPV Convention according to the latest TRS poll.

Cox retains a solid 17 point lead over Disruptor CEO Pete Snyder, whose 2nd place showing at 23% is backed by a series of second place votes among the second-tier candidates. Former Carlyle Group CEO Glenn Youngkin remains at 19%.

State Senator Amanda Chase (I-Chesterfield) continues to hover at 11% of the vote while former Trump Asst. Defense Secretary Sergio de la Pena is showing up at a reliable 5%.

So what if anything do these numbers mean in a ranked choice primary?

Republican convention delegates will be voting for their 1st, 2nd, 3rd and so forth candidates among seven available choices for governor. Any candidate that does not muster the 10% required past the post will have their second (or third) choices advanced as their first choice.

94.26% of all respondents are split between the top four — Chase, Cox, Snyder and Youngkin. Which means that the other three candidates — all honorable people who have run remarkable campaigns — will have a negligible impact on the rest of the ticket.

One Word Of Caution To Consultants, Politicos, or People Easily Offended By Information Running Contrary to Their Strongly Held Opinions…

This is an online poll.

It is an online poll of people who respond well to the writing style here at TRS. Caveat lector and all that.

This having been said, no one else is conducting these sorts of polls except TRS. Campaigns are polling the conventioneers the same as we are (and perhaps not as well) using landlines, cell phones, text messages, and so forth.

That is to say that this is all for information purposes only. Anyone who tells you with pinpoint precision where this race actually is? Fire them.

Plus, confident campaigns don’t whine. So there’s that.

Enough of that. Let’s go through a list of what-ifs, or the more interesting question of what happens when each candidate falls off the list for consideration — and where their votes go.

Sergio de la Pena (5%)

de la Pena has run a remarkable campaign given the resources. With Chase not having her traditional social media access on Facebook, her popularity (and visibility) has plummeted dramatically — from frontrunner to backburner.

The beneficiary? de la Pena.

Should de la Pena fall off and not clear the 10% threshold, the plurality of his votes go to Chase — but not by much. Cox, Snyder, and Youngkin all benefit evenly from de la Pena’s early departure (should this happen). But Chase slightly more so.

A combination of an even split and a minor fraction of the vote indicates that de la Pena’s absence from the ticket will not impact the ranked choice balloting significantly.

Amanda Chase (11%)

Here’s the big question mark.

Very early in this race, Chase was both the self-declared frontrunner and the actual frontrunner, mostly by virtue of the fact that she had an early head start and a Facebook account with national attention.

That platform is gone. As the other candidates have made their case known, so too has Chase’s lead.

Chase’s voters could still be turning out in droves, which one of the many variables in this nomination contest. Should Chase hold on with a plurality in either the first or second place slot? Things get interesting, but not for Chase.

The reason why? 41% of all Republican voters rank Chase dead last. Meaning that as the other candidates fall off, few are swinging her way.

So much for the DGA narrative.

Assume for a moment that Chase survives the 10% threshold but finishes in 4th place. Who receives her votes? Shockingly it isn’t Snyder or Cox, but Glenn Youngkin who Chase voters turn towards as their second choice with 27% of the vote if de la Pena drops off as well. Cox nabs 21% of the remaining vote at third place, with Pete Snyder in fourth with 20% of Chase’s vote.

Chase’s #2? Sergio de la Pena.

This might suggest a slight lean towards Youngkin, but Pete Snyder picks up the most third rank votes from Chase supporters at 25%.

The result is probably negligible, but with the addition of de la Pena supporters, Snyder most likely edges out Youngkin in the event of a Chase collapse.

Glenn Youngkin (19%)

The true wild card in the race is Glenn Youngkin, who promised to bring 30,000 delegates to the RPV Convention. In a typical convention, 20,000 is a respectable number. This year? 53,000 delegates are signed up.

Youngkin ostensibly delivered the delegate pre-files. Question is how soft those pre-files are and whether they are going to show up (or whether they are actually Youngkin pre-files and not Snyder or Chase pre-files).

Of course, it should be said that Youngkin has been mercilessly hammering Pete Snyder — the man with a similar resume.

Assuming that Youngkin runs a noble-yet-tough campaign introducing himself to Virginia voters that puts him ahead of Chase but not capturing the lion’s share of the 15% dangling on the string? Youngkin voters flip Cox by a margin of 2:1.

Of course, this is entirely based on whether Youngkin actually produces that 19% of the vote. If Youngkin’s 30,000 strong army merely produces a tenth of that number? Then the results become not just statistically negligible, but Chase’s voters make this a one-on-one horse race against the longtime conservative challenger…

Pete Snyder (23%)

There is no better place to be as a campaign than in control of your own destiny. While insiders are talking up Youngkin’s 30,000 man delegate army, les grognards are pointing to how they were earned — via bounties in front of supermarkets — and making two cases:

They aren’t turning out.
Those who do turn out will be expensive.
Snyder has an army, too…

Here’s the better question folks should be raising. Where did all those Chase supporters go?

Are they voting for Kirk Cox? That seems unlikely.
Are they really voting for Glenn Youngkin? That seems opposite of everything one might instinctually believe about the base of either candidate…

Or are they going to vote for the most conservative candidate that can win?

If Snyder finishes in third or fourth place? Overwhelmingly, Snyder supporters are going for Cox (3:1) with Youngkin taking a modest share of the votes. Snyder supporters wander a bit — de la Pena and Johnson as 2nd and 3rd place votes — but inevitably come back to Cox.

However, if Snyder picks up the pace and polls even with Cox? Here are your variables:

Chase supporters turn out in larger numbers and break for Snyder. Could happen; might not.
The second-tier candidates turn out in larger numbers and break for Snyder. In which case, if this does go to the wire with Cox? Cox might get stunned.
Youngkin underperforms. In which case, it might not be enough second place boosters for Cox.
Snyder overperforms. As in these poll numbers are way soft and the 5th, 6th and 9th Districts of Virginia combine with Snyder’s NOVA support and produce a wallop on Saturday.

If there is one candidate with the most volition in the contest? Snyder at present is in the drivers seat and coming on fast.

Kirk Cox (41%)

Let’s assume for just a moment that Cox goes down hard as a third or fourth ranked candidate. Assume that both Snyder and Youngkin produce their armies and Cox collapses. Where do his votes go?

Almost half (49.23%) of Cox’s support goes to Youngkin.

Given how far back Youngkin is? This event might not be enough to put Youngkin over the top. But given how far ahead Cox appears to be at present? Cox is certainly primed to be everyone’s second choice.

With the other candidates out, Snyder picks up 38% of that vote. Which means that if (and only if) Snyder produces a strong first place showing and if Cox goes down, and if Youngkin does not produce his army? Snyder would win for no other reason than Youngkin would be too far back.

I’ll allow others to measure out how long that rabbit trail is.

Cox Commands in Ranked Choice Format; Snyder Stronger Than Appears

In a traditional ranked choice voting format, who wins?

Of course, you can instantly see how this gets weird the moment we introduce variables. What if Chase really is stronger? What if the silent majority turns up for Snyder? What if Cox isn’t as strong as we think? What if Youngkin’s supporters trade a drive-thru convention for a super awesome Saturday with the kids?

What if we are at war in Taiwan or Lithuania next week? What if aliens invade Australia?

Or what if this is the best it is gonna get in terms of insight?

The best way to read a poll? Read what it is telling you in generalizations and trends. Then start looking for the Black Swans and ask whether there are things you’re not seeing.

What is truth after all? A 95% confidence interval…

My two cents? Cox is the man to beat; Snyder is a lot stronger and better positioned than folks think.

This is still a two-man race, and it is where Sergio de la Pena’s supporters break on the right — not Youngkin or Chase — that determines the outcome. If your gut says Snyder? That’s where this gets interesting.

We find out on Saturday-ish.

Or whenever the ballots are done being tallied.

Republicans Want Candidates Who Will Beat The Democrats in November

The question as to whether “beating the Democrats” is more important than political purity continues to come up. So TRS polled the question:

Overwhelmingly, keeping the Democrats out of power via majorities was far more important than having the right candidate run for office. Not a surprising outcome given the Northam/McAuliffe era.

Republicans Will Accept The Outcome of the Convention

One of the more serious complaints has been the process of the RPV Convention, unassembled and at 38 different locations. While the campaigns themselves might be tussling, Republican grassroots are focused on the larger prize:

Only a 1 in 5 Republicans remain skeptical of the outcome, while the vast majority are trusting their fellow Republicans to have the integrity to faithfully execute the convention process accordingly.

More on the lieutenant governor and attorney general’s race in tomorrow’s update.

The Republican Standard conducted this poll among both readership and RPV Convention delegates between 30 April and 03 May with 645 people participating in the survey.

Complaints submitted here (and please do read the entire thing).

Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.