Thursday, February 27, 2020

Democratic superdelegates overwhelmingly say they’ll block Bernie

Daily Wire
February 27, 2020

Is Bernie really inevitable? Democratic superdelegates don't think so, and they might end up having a lot to say about it come July. It's been another "chaotic" and "fiasco"-filled week so let's get to it. Here's your latest installment of Election Wire.

1. Bernie wins Nevada big.

Bernie Sanders (Ethan MillerGetty Images)

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was expected to win Nevada, and he did so in the most dominant fashion of any Democratic candidate yet in a primary contest, taking 47% of the vote. In a distant second was former frontrunner Joe Biden, who earned 20%, followed by former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 14% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with just under 10%. The contest gave Sanders 24 more pledged delegates, Biden another 9 and Buttigieg just 3. Warren and everyone else took home zero.

The big victory for Sanders puts him well ahead of the pack in terms of delegates, but not prohibitively so. Here's the current delegate count: Sanders, 45; Buttigieg, 25; Biden, 15; Warren, 8; and Klobuchar, 7.


2. The South Carolina debate was a debacle.

South Carolina Debate (Win McNameeGetty Images)

Win McNamee/Getty Images

The takeaways from the Democratic debate in Charleston on Tuesday were almost uniformly negative for the Democrats, who viewers got to see repeatedly interrupting each other, talking—at times shouting—over each other, and then whining to the ill-equipped CBS moderators about not getting a chance to be heard. It was, as various politicos put it, a "chaotic," "embarrassing," "disastrous" "fiasco."

Never letting a good Democratic crisis go to waste, President Trump offered up his summary of what took place and pretty much nailed it:

"Crazy, chaotic Democrat Debate last night. Fake News said Biden did well, even though he said half of our population was shot to death. Would be OVER for most. Mini Mike was weak and unsteady, but helped greatly by his many commercials (which are not supposed to be allowed during a debate). Pocahontas was mean, & undisciplined, mostly aiming at Crazy Bernie and Mini Mike. They don't know how to handle her, but I know she is a 'chocker'. Steyer was a disaster who, along with Mini, are setting records in $'s per vote. Just give me an opponent!"


📊 3. What it all means for the polls.


Polling data from RealClearPolitics

The contest in Nevada and the debate appear to have had some subtle impact on the polls, though not much. Sanders still enjoys a double-digit lead at 29%, while Biden is still second with 18% and Bloomberg remains in third with 14%. Biden appears to be gaining a little momentum at the expense of Bloomberg, who has slipped about a point since last week. Meanwhile, Warren (12%), Buttigieg (10%) and Klobuchar (5%) have continued to fail to gain any traction, all three declining somewhat in recent days.

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4. Democratic superdelegates overwhelmingly say they'll block Bernie.

Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer (Sean RayfordGetty Images)

Sean Rayford/Getty Images

With former frontrunners and would-be contenders failing to muster much of a resistance thus far, the socialist senator is increasingly poised to win more pledged delegates than his opponents. But if Sanders pulls in a plurality of delegates yet fails to get a majority, he could very well find himself once again on the outside looking in. That's because the Democratic Party has allotted about 15% of its total delegate count to unpledged delegates, or superdelegates, who get to choose the candidate they want regardless of which candidate the people choose.

Since Sanders won easily in Nevada on Saturday, The New York Times has interviewed 93 of the 771 superdelegates and found "overwhelming opposition to handing the Vermont senator the nomination if he arrived with the most delegates but fell short of a majority."

"Dozens of interviews with Democratic establishment leaders this week show that they are not just worried about Mr. Sanders's candidacy, but are also willing to risk intraparty damage to stop his nomination at the national convention in July if they get the chance," the Times reported Thursday. If the "establishment" Democrats actually end up torpedoing a Sanders nomination, as they're threatening to do, the party will officially implode.


5. Trump is tracking pretty well.

Donald Trump (Al DragoBloomberg via Getty Images Facebook Twitter Mail)

Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Trump's job approval could of course be better, but it's rather remarkable to see how much he's managed to close the approval gap since the impeachment process began. Now, three weeks after being acquitted, Trump has whittled down what was once a 13-point gap in October to a mere 4 points, about a one-point improvement from a week ago. RCP's average gives him 46.4% approval and 50.4% disapproval. That's not bad for Trump, and it might just be good enough to win in November.

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll gives Trump even more encouraging news. According its most recent surveys of likely voters, Rasmussen says Trump's real approval gap is +5 points: 52 –47, with 38% strongly approving and 40% strongly disapproving. Those are some of the best numbers the pollster has found for Trump during his presidency.


6. Up next: South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Joe Biden (Win McNameeGetty Images)

Win McNamee/Getty Images

Biden has long held the lead in South Carolina and, after a decline following Iowa and New Hampshire, has seen a surge in support in recent days. That surge appears to have been mainly at the expense of Steyer, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Ahead of the primary, Biden once again holds a double-digit lead over second-place Sanders, a lead that had once dwindled to just 2 points.

Here are the latest averages from South Carolina polls: Biden 34.4%, Sanders 21.8%, Steyer 13.8%, Buttigieg 8.2%, Warren 8.2%, Klobuchar 3.8%.

As for Super Tuesday, a majority of the state polls show Sanders with a lead, but often a tenuous one. Biden averages out to be the second-most competitive for the big delegate-grab day, but Bloomberg is tracking well in a few states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma and Virginia. Sanders' strongest leads are in Vermont (+38), California (+13), Colorado (+13), Utah (+13), and Maine (+9).


🗓️ 7. Don't miss these dates!

  • February 29: South Carolina primary — 54 delegates 
  • March 3: Super Tuesday — 15 states and territories, 1,357 delegates
  • March 15: Next Democratic debate — Arizona

8. Meme of the week

Soviet Relics Meme

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