Recent Public Polling & Where We Stand

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: CHRIS LaCIVITA, CONSULTANT

RE: RECENT PUBLIC POLLING AND WHERE WE STAND

DATE: SEPTEMBER 24, 2013

Key Findings

1. Averaging the last six public polls, this remains a margin race with a significant percentage of undecided voters 

If you take the average of the last six public opinion polls, McAuliffe holds a slim 3.83 percent lead. 

2. The partisan breakdown of the two most recent polls—conducted by The Washington Post and NBC/Marist—skew much closer to the 2012 electoral model.  In 2009, the partisan breakdown was R+4.

The partisan breakdown of The Washington Post Poll was 33 percent Democrat, 26 percent Republican and 34 percent Independent.  In the NBC poll, it was 33 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican and 36 percent independent. 

3. Ken Cuccinelli continues to enjoy a significant advantage when it comes to the enthusiasm of those who are likely to vote for him. This data point is particularly significant in an off-year election when turnout is traditionally lower.  

According to the Post poll, voters are more enthused about voting for Ken Cuccinelli (net 76 percent enthusiastic versus net 22 percent not enthusiastic) than Terry McAuliffe (net 68 percent enthusiastic versus net 31 percent net enthusiastic.)  Similarly, Ken Cuccinelli enjoyed a plus three enthusiasm gap advantage in last week's Quinnipiac poll.

4. During the 2009 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, just one month before the primary, Terry McAuliffe averaged a double-digit lead over his rivals. When the primary was actually held, McAuliffe lost by more than 23 points. As voters start to pay more attention and learn about McAuliffe's lack or seriousness and dismal record, his support deteriorates rapidly. 

The Bottom Line

In the past ten days, we have seen six different polls, all showing different results.  These varying results can be attributed to everything from when the poll was conducted to what the partisan breakdown was and model used.  That being said, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  While all the surveys show Ken Cuccinelli trailing Terry McAuliffe, the margin matters. 

Despite being outspent significantly all summer and into September, the fact that Ken is still hanging around within striking distance speaks to the weakness of Terry McAuliffe as a serious and capable candidate, and the more people hear Ken's message and plan to create 58,000 more jobs, the more receptive and inclined they are in voting for him.

Tomorrow night, when voters see both men on the stage without their handlers, they are going to see that there's only one candidate who is prepared and ready to lead them for the next four years: Ken Cuccinelli.

Chris LaCivita

PAID FOR AND AUTHORIZED BY KEN CUCCINELLI FOR GOVERNOR

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Cuccinelli for Governor
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