Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Biden burying Bernie in the polls

Daily Wire
March 11, 2020

Biden enjoys another dominant Tuesday, Sanders insists he's not dead yet, while Trump is trying to keep coronavirus from turning into his Katrina. After another whirlwind week, it's time for another installment of Election Wire.

1. Biden's campaign just hit cruise control.


Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Last week, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Mike Bloomberg, and, finally, Elizabeth Warren all called it quits, clearing the field to allow Biden to do what he did this Tuesday to Bernie Sanders — trounce him easily. A week after Super Tuesday, where Biden won 9 of the 15 primary contests, the former vice president won 4 of the 6 states whose delegates were up for grabs.

By the end of the day, Biden had won Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri, and by rather large margins, taking 11 of Idaho's 20 delegates, 72 of Michigan's 125, 31 of Mississippi's 36, and 43 of Missouri's 68. He also performed better than many expected in Washington, which was supposed to be a Sanders-friendly state.

With delegates still trickling in from Washington, Biden now has amassed a 150-delegate lead:

  • Biden – 860
  • Sanders – 710

2. Sanders thinks he can still mount a comeback.


Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Despite most of the political world declaring his "revolution" officially over, the Sanders campaign has made clear that he plans to stay in at least through the next debate, which is being held in Phoenix, Arizona on Sunday – and which the Democratic National Committee assured the country is not being canceled by coronavirus, like Sanders' and Biden's rallies.

"I, for one, am extremely excited about this debate all the moderates are panicking about," Sanders' press secretary said despite Tuesday's disappointing results. "The delegate count difference is only about 150 points out of 4,051 total. America finally gets to see Biden defend his ideas, or lack thereof, on Sunday."

But while Bernie's campaign puts a brave face on the situation, seeing a path for him to the nomination is becoming nearly impossible. As FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver explained on Wednesday, the primary appears to be all but over, with Biden's support looking "quite geographically robust" and the primaries over the next two weeks — which include Florida and Georgia, where Sanders is expected to lose big — being "one of the worst stretches of the calendar" for Sanders.


📊 3. National poll watch: Biden back on top.


The reversal of fortunes for Biden and Sanders is now more than complete, with Biden now leading the Vermont senator by an even wider margin than Sanders once led him. According to Real Clear Politics' average of the national polls, Biden's advantage over Sanders is now 17.4 points. Just two weeks ago, Sanders held an 11-point lead over Biden.

With everyone else but Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) now out of the race, Biden has been able to finally do what no other Democratic candidate had yet done in the national polls: earn a majority of Democratic support.

Here are RCP's latest averages from the national polls:

  • Biden 53.4%
  • Sanders 36%
  • Gabbard 2%
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4. Trump's approval numbers slipping a little.


Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Despite all the turmoil this year, Trump's been tracking pretty well on job approval, particularly in comparison to his rough October. However, coronavirus does appear to be having some negative impact. Over the last two weeks, Trump's approval numbers by average have dipped about two points.

On February 24, Trump had closed his approval gap to just 4 points—the smallest that gap had been since his first few weeks in office three years ago. The gap has doubled since. According to RCP's average, Trump is currently about 9 points under water:

  • 44% approve
  • 52.8% disapprove

Reuters gives the president slightly worse numbers (42/54), Economist/YouGov gives him slightly better numbers (45/52), and Rasmussen sees it even more optimistically for Trump (47/52).


5. So how is Trump vs. Biden shaping up?


Drew Angerer/Getty Images

While ultimately what really matters are state polls, the national polls can be a helpful measure of the general popularity and momentum of candidates. RCP's average, which includes some polls that are weeks old, gives Biden a 6.3-point lead (50.7/44.4). Two of the most recent national polls, conducted over the last week, give Biden a double-digit advantage, while the most recent survey, conducted by Economist/YouGov March 8-10 gives Biden just a 4-point edge:

  • Economist/YouGov – Biden 47, Trump 43 (Biden +4)
  • CNN – Biden 53, Trump 43 (Biden +10)
  • Quinnipiac – Biden 52, Trump 41 (Biden +11)

If Trump stays within striking distance in the national polls, he should feel pretty good about his overall performance. In the end, of course, voters in Rust Belt states and other key battleground states, including Florida, are going to determine if he gets another four years.


6. Next up: Four more states.


Alice Keeney/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The next big set of primaries are being held on March 17 in four states: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Biden is again poised to dominate, particularly in Florida, where the most recent two polls give him 36 and 47-point advantages over Sanders. The most recent poll out of Arizona shows Biden leading by an impressive 28 points.


🗓️ 7. Don't miss these dates!

  • March 15: Next Democratic debate — Arizona
  • March 17: Florida and three other state primaries — 577 delegates

8. Meme of the week

Old Man Yells At Cloud meme-1

Check out more on Instagram @realdailywire.


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